A changing risk is not the same as a single event
Research can assess long-term changes in heat and heavy rainfall. Whether and how climate change influenced a particular event is a different question. We keep these two types of claim separate.
What does the evidence show?
The following statements refer to the IPCC's 2021 assessment, not a continuously updated forecast for your location.
Hot extremes are increasing
Observed
Since the 1950s, hot extremes have become more frequent and more intense across most land regions.
Attributed
The IPCC assesses with high confidence that human-caused climate change is the main driver of this change.
What this does not establish
This assessment does not quantify the influence on a particular hot day or heatwave.
Heavy rainfall is increasing in many places
Observed
Since the 1950s, the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation have increased over most land areas with sufficient observational data.
Attributed
The IPCC assesses human-caused climate change as the likely main driver of this change.
What this does not establish
More heavy rainfall does not automatically mean more flooding on every river. An individual rainfall event or river level needs its own assessment.
Climate trends and event attribution are two different questions
Long-term trend
Has the frequency or intensity of an event type changed over decades? Answering this requires assessing many observations and studies together.
Specific event
How much did climate change alter the probability or intensity of this event? Answering this requires a relevant attribution study.
Without such a study, GoYeti does not claim a climate contribution to a fire, flood or storm. The map shows the event, not its cause.
IPCC AR6, Chapter 11: Extreme events and attributionNo automatic climate attribution
Live reports describe an event's location, timing and sources.
The climate section explains assessed long-term changes, citing sources and uncertainty.
A claim about a specific event appears only with a linked scientific attribution study.
Current events are not yet checked automatically for attribution studies.