Methodology & Transparency

This is how individual signals become a hazard event

The Europe Hazard Map combines satellite data, official reports, incident reports, press sources, risk weather, and other sensor signals. Each statement remains traceable to its original source, age, and location accuracy. Wildfire, flood, and heavy rainfall use the same event and evidence model but separate assessment rules.

Earthquakes are imported from seismic catalogues and processed using dedicated assessment and lifecycle rules.

The map is not an official warning system. For protective measures, only the instructions of the competent authorities apply.

Source statusis loadedLive Reconciliation

Full retrieval15 minNational sources and satellites

OpenSky retrieval4 minWhen authentication is enabled

Assessment modelNoisy-OrAge and location accuracy dampened

Data sources

Multiple Independent Perspectives

The cadence refers to our technical refresh rate. A data product itself may be updated less frequently, such as a daily wildfire danger index.

Source	What it delivers	Our cadence	Role
NASA FIRMS	VIIRS and MODIS hotspots, confidence and radiative power (FRP)	15 min	Early warning
Official warnings and incidents	NINA/MoWaS as well as national and regional fire brigade and disaster protection sources	15 min	Confirmation
MeteoAlarm	Official CAP warnings from European weather services for flood, heavy rain and thunderstorms, including warning level, area and expiry time	15 min	Official warning
National gauge and flood services	Current thresholds, levels and official flood warnings from 33 European countries, including PEGELONLINE, Vigicrues/Hubeau, BAFU, IMGW, eHYD, ARSO, INHGA, APA, DPC, NVE, SMHI, OPW, NRW, SPW and the Baltic weather services. Normal levels and low-water conditions do not generate an event. Direct national warnings and derived MeteoAlarm messages are counted only once based on their origin identifier. Sources with a reuse reservation remain explicitly marked in status and detail view.	15 minMeasurements per country range from minutes to daily	Measurement / Warning
EFAS / GloFAS	European and global flood forecasts as toggleable WMS map layers; EFAS real-time data requires personal access	Fetch Map on DemandNo automatic score contribution	Forecast context
DWD WarnWetter	Official German heavy rain, continuous rain and thunderstorm warnings by warning area, warning level, start and expiry	15 min	Official warning
DWD Radar-Nowcast	German precipitation radar with analysis and forecast for the next two hours	Fetch Map on DemandNo automatic score contribution	Nowcast context
EMSC / USGS / GDACS	European earthquakes above the configured minimum magnitude with origin time, epicentre, magnitude and depth. EMSC is the primary catalogue, USGS provides catalogue matching and GDACS adds impact indicators.	15 minSeven-day lookback; 6 to 168 hours on the live map depending on magnitude	Seismic event
DWD and national risk models	Fire danger, FWI and regional risk levels	15 min fetchProducts mostly daily	Context
Press and emergency services	Direct fire brigade and police reports with location determination, deduplication, and original linking	15 min	Additional evidence
Google News RSS	Country- and language-specific news search. Google is only an aggregator; hits are filtered, geolocated, and marked separately.	15 minOptional, 48-hour lookback	Discovery
OpenSky Network	Mission aircraft and helicopters, as well as identified circular and observation patterns	4 minSeparate retrieval	Weak evidence
EFFIS / Copernicus	European Fire Weather Index, active fires, and mapped burn areas	15 min fetchFWI mostly daily	Context / Area
GDACS	International wildfire and flood major events as independent cross-check	15 min	Major event
AI Verification	Event-related Google News RSS search and structured review of confirmed, probable, and suspected events	15 minAfter activation; status changes never solely by AI	Verification

Country-specific sources are also integrated for large parts of Europe. Disabled, access-restricted or non-machine-readable sources are explicitly indicated in the system status.

Pipeline

From raw signal to event history

All sources undergo the same traceable steps. Raw data and calculated results remain separate.

1
Normalise
Different formats are translated into a common observation model with timestamp, coordinate, category and origin.
2
Group spatially and temporally
Near signals are merged into stable events. Multiple pixels from the same satellite overpass count as one evidence group.
3
Assign sources
Warnings, deployments, press reports, flight patterns and risk context are linked by distance, time and location.
4
Remove duplicates
Duplicate messages and repeated publications from the same source are not counted multiple times.
5
Calculate score
Independent evidence is combined via Noisy-Or and dampened by age and spatial uncertainty.
6
Save status and history
Title, score, lifecycle, sources and status changes are permanently retained for map, detail view and event archive.

Score

Probability instead of a simple score

A signal is initially assigned a base weight. Age and location uncertainty reduce its contribution. Independent contributions are then combined.

Contribution of a signal w = Base × Time factor × Location factor

Base by source typeTime Half-life 6 hLocation Penalty for inaccuracy

Fusion of independent signals P = 1 − ∏(1 − w)

High wildfire risk can moderately enhance the fire outcome. Floods and heavy rainfall are assessed separately from official alert level, gauge observation, gauge trend, age, location accuracy, and GDACS events. Grid forecasts currently do not affect the score.

Earthquakes receive a separate relevance score based on magnitude, depth, catalogue matching, felt reports and GDACS impact indicators.

Example base weights

Mapped CEMS Fire Area: 0.95
Official fire warning: 0.90
Fire service incident report: 0.85
GDACS wildfire: 0.75
Press/emergency services report: 0.60
Flight pattern: 0.30
Satellite hotspot: 0.25–0.50
Elevated gauge: 0.52–0.82
Gauge trend correction: -0.08 / +0.08

Score and status are separate. A purely satellite-based cluster can achieve a high score but will never be termed 'confirmed' without corroborating sources.

Warnings, thresholds and confirmed events remain separate. MeteoAlarm describes an official hazard, a rising water level indicates a local observation. Only a current GDACS Flood Major Event automatically receives the status 'Flood Confirmed'.

Gauge trends are calculated from stored measurement series. Changes over one, three, six and 24 hours are stored locally. A significantly rising water level increases the contribution; measurement noise below 3 cm or 30 mm is treated as constant.

The earthquake score is not a probability. An earthquake has already been recorded instrumentally. The score prioritises current events by magnitude, depth, catalogue match and known impact indicators; it predicts neither aftershocks nor damage.

Status

What the colours on the map mean

The designation describes the current evidence situation, not the hazard level or size of the event.

Thermal anomalySatellite signal without sufficient corroborating evidence

SuspectedScore between 30 and 69 per cent without corroborating source

ProbableScore from 70 per cent but no reliable confirmation yet

ConfirmedConfirming official, incident, CEMS, or GDACS source available

All clear / inactiveOfficial all-clear, reported extinguishment or expired lifecycle

False alarm likelyContradictory robust evidence; automated AI checks are prepared for this.

Heavy rain warningCurrent official warning; the classification follows the CAP alert level

Flood warningCurrent official warning, no confirmed flood event yet

Elevated gaugeA national gauge service reports a current value above the station-specific comparison range; this alone does not yet confirm flooding.

Critically Rising Water LevelA gauge with a high risk level shows a significant rise across multiple measurement points; without an official flood warning, this remains a measurement signal.

Flood confirmedA current GDACS major flood event is present

Minor / light earthquakeMagnitude below 4.5; visible for six or twelve hours

Moderate earthquakeMagnitude 4.5 to below 5.5; 24 hours on the live map

Strong / major earthquakeMagnitude 5.5 or above; 72 or 168 hours on the live map

AI Verification

Targeted verification of fires and candidates

The check queue and structured storage are implemented. Ollama evaluates existing sources locally; OpenAI can optionally search additional web sources. Automatic runs start only after explicit activation.

Implemented

Select Candidates

Import active confirmed, probable and suspected European fire events into the test queue.

Search sources

Search for current Google News RSS feeds using place names and local fire terms, and process existing official, press, satellite, and risk signals.

Match sources

Compare time, location and event type; treat social media as indicators only.

Save structured

Save results, confidence, locations, and original links as new evidence.

Open AI Verification

Boundaries

What the map does not claim

Satellite sensors detect heat. Industry, flares, and agricultural fires can look similar.
A circling aircraft is only a weak indicator and may be observing a fire, fighting it, or flying another mission.
High fire danger describes favourable conditions but does not confirm a specific fire.
An official weather warning describes an expected or ongoing hazard in the warned area, but does not automatically imply damage has occurred at every location.
An elevated river level may be locally relevant but, without further sources, does not constitute proof of flooding. Station references differ between national services.
Radar and EFAS/GloFAS forecasts are visual reference layers. They are not yet pixel-perfectly assigned to an event and therefore are not automatically evaluated.
Text messages can only be located at municipal or district level. This uncertainty reduces their score contribution.
Catalogue operators may revise magnitude, depth and epicentre. Temporally separate aftershocks remain distinct events; the map does not predict earthquakes.

Methodology status: 25 August 2026 · Models noisy_or_v1, hydromet_warning_v1 and earthquake_relevance_v1